Pakistan Climate Change Portal
Beta Version
Beta Version
It is important to evaluate how climate has varied and changed in the past. The monthly mean historical rainfall and temperature data can be mapped to show the baseline climate and seasonality by month, for specific years, and for rainfall and temperature. The chart above shows mean historical monthly temperature and rainfall for Pakistan during the time period 1901-2015. The dataset was produced by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia (UEA).
Description about selected variable will be shown here. (no data added yet)
Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.
Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.
Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.
Total population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship. The values shown are midyear estimates.
Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.
GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.
Source: World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.
Pakistan's Economic Overview
Economic
growth in Pakistan has historically remained volatile, lacking a steady growth
path and adding to the economic uncertainty about the country’s economic
conditions. Historical data suggests that the economy reached a high of above
10 percent growth level in 1954, but the following year it declined to 2
percent and went up again to above 9 percent in 1969 and 1970. Then it dipped
again to 1.2 percent in the following year. Likewise, it reached 7.5 percent in
2004-05 but slowed down to 5.6 percent next year and further dropped to 5.5
percent in 2006- 07. From 2007-08 to 2012-13 the economy grew by 3.2 percent on
an average.
When the
present government came into power in 2013 it particularly focused on the
revival of the economy and within a short period of time it achieved
considerable gains in restoring economic stability. After taking measures to
restore macroeconomic stability, the government focused on higher GDP growth
that brings better living conditions to the people through higher increases in
per capita incomes, more job opportunities etc. Since 2013-14, the economy has
witnessed a smooth upward trend in growth rate. Real GDP growth was above four
percent in 2013-14 and has smoothly increased during the last four years to
reach 5.28 percent in 2016-17, which is the highest in 10 years. It is widely
acknowledged that Pakistan has immense economic potential.
According to
a report published by Price Water House Coopers in 2017, Pakistan is projected
to become the world’s 20th largest economy by 2030 and 16th largest by 2050.
Several other reputed international publications such as Bloomberg, Economist
etc, have also acknowledged the impressive economic gains of Pakistan in the
last four years. The accommodative monetary policy stance, increase in
development spending, substantial growth in private sector credit, inspired
activities in the power sector, friendly and progrowth policies for real sector
growth, such as relief measures and in particular for the agriculture sector,
were instrumental in achieving this impressive growth performance. The outgoing
fiscal year has witnessed an impressive growth in agriculture output and in the
services sector. The agriculture sector met its growth target of 3.5 percent,
helped by government supportive policies and by increased agriculture credit
disbursements.
During
2015-16, the agriculture credit disbursement was close to Rs 600 billion while
during 2016-17, the target was raised to Rs 700 billion. During July-March
2016-17, the disbursement was observed to be 23 percent higher as compared to
the previous year. These developments, along with the Prime Minister’s
Agriculture Kissan Package together with other relief measures have started
yielding positive results. The large-scale manufacturing output is primarily
based on Quantum Index Manufacturing (QIM) data, which show an increase by 5.06
percent from July 2016 to March 2017. Major contributors to this growth are
sugar (29.33 percent), cement (7.19 percent), tractors (72.9 percent), trucks
(39.31 percent) and buses (19.71 percent). High growth of sugar is based on
production of 73.9 Million Tons of Sugarcane as compared to 65.5 million tons
last year, which represents an increase by 12.4 percent. Large Scale
Manufacturing growth has picked up momentum and posted a strong 10.5 percent
growth in the month of March 2017 compared to 7.6 percent in March 2016. The
YoY growth augurs well for further improvement in growth during the period
under review.
On average,
the LSM growth stood at 5.06 percent during July-March FY 2017 compared to 4.6
percent in the same period last year. The sectors recording positive growth
during Jul-Mar FY 2017 are textile 0.78 percent, food and beverages 9.65
percent, pharmaceuticals 8.74 percent, non-metallic minerals 7.11 percent,
cement 7.19 percent, automobiles 11.31 percent, iron & steel 16.58 percent,
fertilizer 1.32 percent, electronics 15.24 percent, paper & board 5.08
percent, engineering products 2.37 percent, and rubber products 0.04 percent.
Pakistan is bestowed with all kinds of resources which also include minerals.
Pakistan possesses many industrial rocks, metallic and nonmetallic, which have
not yet been evaluated. In the wake of the 18th Amendment, provinces enjoy
great freedom to explore and exploit the natural resources located in their
authority, with the result that they are currently undertaking a number of
projects using their own resources, or in collaboration with the federal
government or with donors to tap and develop these resources. The services
sector recorded a growth of 5.98 percent and surpassed its target which was set
at 5.70 percent. Wholesale and retail trade sector grew at a rate of 6.82
percent. The growth in this sector is bolstered by the output in the
agriculture and manufacturing sectors.
The share of
Agriculture, Manufacturing and Imports in Wholesale and Retail Trade growth is
18 percent, 54 percent and 15 percent respectively. The Transport, Storage and
Communication sector grew at a rate of 3.94 percent. Finance and insurance
activities show an overall increase of 10.77 percent, mainly because of rapid
expansion of deposit formation (15 percent) and demand for loans (11 percent).
General government services grew by 6.91 percent, mainly driven by the increase
in real wages and salaries in this sector. Also other private services
contributed significantly. The observed acceleration of economic growth was
bolstered by growth-oriented policies and strategies during the last four years
such as the National Power Policy, Kissan Package, Automotive Policy, Textile
Policy, Strategic Trade Policy Framework (STPF) 2015-18, the Domestic Resource
Mobilization Strategy, improvement in the Ease of Doing Business, and the
National Financial Inclusion Strategy. The Automotive Policy has attracted new
entrants such as Hyundai, Renault and Nissan. The policy interest rate, which
is the lowest in a decades and stood at 5.75 percent, was particularly helpful
for private sector credit expansion. The Credit to Private Sector (CPS)
witnessed growth of 65.0 percent during July- 05th May, FY 2017. This credit
expansion is instrumental in bolstering further productivity growth in the
manufacturing sector.
A welcome
development is the increasing trend in fixed investment expenditures,
particularly in manufacturing, textile, cement, food, electricity generation
and other sectors. A sustained growth in credit for fixed investment bodes well
for a future increase in Pakistan’s overall intensity to invest. The capital
market reaching historically high levels (the stock market index rose above the
52,000 mark in April 2017) is another sign of investor’s interest in Pakistan’s
economy. Revival of investor’s confidence and the inclusion in the Emerging
Markets Index by Morgan Stanley Capital International has empowered the
Pakistan Stock Exchange to outperform its regional peers over the last four
years. Overall fiscal deficit contracted by an annual reduction of over 1
percent of GDP owing to higher revenue receipts, rationalization of subsidies,
and stringent control on current expenditure. Due to prudent expenditure
management, the budget deficit was successfully brought down to 4.6 percent in
Overview of the Economy iii FY2016 from 8.2 percent in FY2013.
During the
current year, the deficit is expected to remain on the downward trajectory
observed over the recent years, despite several growth-stimulating relief
measures that have been provided by the government such as tax incentives to
the agriculture sector through sales tax exemption on pesticide and fertilizers
Similarly, five major exports-oriented sectors (textile, leather, surgical and
sports goods and carpets) were allowed zero rating facility. In addition,
petroleum prices were subsidized to provide relief to consumers Moreover,
customs duties on the import of raw cotton, staple, nylon and acrylic fibers
were exempted and sales tax exemption was allowed on the import of new textile
machinery. The pace of revenue mobilization has witnessed an upward trajectory
since FY2013. Overall revenues increased to 15.3 percent of GDP in FY2016,
compared to 13.3 percent of GDP recorded in FY2013. Among those, tax revenues
increased from 9.8 percent of GDP in FY2013 to 12.6 percent of GDP in FY2016.
Forest area is land under natural or planted stands of trees of at least 5 meters in situ, whether productive or not, and excludes tree stands in agricultural production systems (for example, in fruit plantations and agroforestry systems) and trees in urban parks and gardens.
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, electronic files and web site.
In Pakistan, the current forest cover extent and deforestation rates are contentious issues among stakeholders. According to the first comprehensive remote sensing based on a national land cover assessment under the Forestry Sector Master Plan (FSMP), the forest area totals 3.59 million ha, which is 4.1% of the total land area of Pakistan [1]. Out of this 3.59 million ha, approximately 67% of the forest area exists in the province Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (1.49 million ha), the administrative region Gilgit-Baltistan (0.66 million ha) and the state of Azad Jammu and Kashmir (0.26 million ha) in the Western Himalaya. Taking the FSMP study as the baseline, a national forest and range resource study observed that annual deforestation in natural forests was 27,000 ha during 1990–2000, giving an annual decline of 0.7%. The Global Forest Resource Assessment reported forest cover to be 2.5 million ha, 2.1 million ha and 1.7 million ha for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010, respectively; hence, the forest cover rate of change during the first decade was ´1.6% per annum and ´2.0% per annum during the second decade [2]. Similarly, the World Bank reports Pakistan’s total forest cover to be 2.2% of its total land area [3]. This situation is similar to several global assessments that refer to various figures on the extent of global forest coverage, which can also be partly attributed to a lack of a clear definition of “forest land” [4]. Few countries have reliable data from comparable assessments over time [2], and this lack of data is a sizable obstacle for efficient forest management policies in these countries. (ICIMOD, 2016)
The forest resources of Pakistan are deteriorating both qualitatively and quantitatively and the annual change rate during 1990-2000 was -1.8% and during 2000-2005 was -2.1%. The main types of forests in Pakistan include conifer, juniper, scrub, riverine and mangrove forests. Irrigated plantations have been raised mainly in Punjab and Sindh provinces. Pakistan is mainly a dry land country, with 80% of its land in arid and semi-arid areas. Current rate of deforestation of natural forests is 27,000 hectare per year. There is a serious threat of accelerated deforestation and forest degradation in many parts of the country in the wake of rising population and associated wood demands, weak governance of tenure, encroachments and land cover changes superimposed by adverse impacts of climate change.
There is a serious threat of further acceleration to the rate of deforestation with rising population and associated wood demands, encroachments and adverse impacts of climate change. Except an informal compilation of reports from provinces, there has been no formal national level forest monitoring system in Pakistan to monitor forest resources and their sustainable management. Pakistan also lacks a clear institutional arrangement, associated roles and responsibilities and a mechanism for reporting to the international conventions (Action Plan for Development of National Forest Monitoring System, 2015).
References
1. Government of Pakistan. Forestry Sector
Master Plan; Ministry of Food and Agriculture: Islamabad,
Pakistan, 1992.
2. Food and Agriculture Organization. Global
Forest Resources Assessment 2010; Food And Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations: Rome,
Italy, 2010.
3. Bank, W. World Development Indicators
Database. Available online: http://data.worldbank.org/datacatalog/
world-development-indicators (accessed on 13
April 2016).
4. Mather, A.S. Assessing the world’s forests. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2005, 15, 267–280.
It is important to evaluate how climate has varied and changed in the past. The monthly mean historical rainfall and temperature data can be mapped to show the baseline climate and seasonality by month, for specific years, and for rainfall and temperature. The chart shows mean historical monthly temperature and rainfall for Pakistan during the time period 1901-2015. The dataset was produced by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of University of East Anglia (UEA).
Annual freshwater withdrawals refer to total water withdrawals, not counting evaporation losses from storage basins. Withdrawals also include water from desalination plants in countries where they are a significant source. Withdrawals can exceed 100 percent of total renewable resources where extraction from nonrenewable aquifers or desalination plants is considerable or where there is significant water reuse. Withdrawals for agriculture and industry are total withdrawals for irrigation and livestock production and for direct industrial use (including withdrawals for cooling thermoelectric plants). Withdrawals for domestic uses include drinking water, municipal use or supply, and use for public services, commercial establishments, and homes. Data are for the most recent year available for 1987-2002.
Carbon dioxide emissions are those stemming
from the burning of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement. They include
carbon dioxide produced during consumption of solid, liquid, and gas fuels and
gas flaring.
· Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee, United States.
· Development Relevance: Carbon dioxide (CO2) is naturally occurring gas fixed by photosynthesis into organic matter. A byproduct of fossil fuel combustion and biomass burning, it is also emitted from land use changes and other industrial processes. It is the principal anthropogenic greenhouse gas that affects the Earth's radiative balance. It is the reference gas against which other greenhouse gases are measured, thus having a Global Warming Potential of 1. Burning of carbon-based fuels since the industrial revolution has rapidly increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, increasing the rate of global warming and causing anthropogenic climate change. It is also a major source of ocean acidification since it dissolves in water to form carbonic acid. The addition of man-made greenhouse gases to the Atmosphere disturbs the earth's radiative balance. This is leading to an increase in the earth's surface temperature and to related effects on climate, sea level rise and world agriculture. Emissions of CO2 are from burning oil, coal and gas for energy use, burning wood and waste materials, and from industrial processes such as cement production. Emission intensity is the average emission rate of a given pollutant from a given source relative to the intensity of a specific activity. Emission intensities are also used to compare the environmental impact of different fuels or activities. The related terms - emission factor and carbon intensity - are often used interchangeably. The carbon dioxide emissions of a country are only an indicator of one greenhouse gas. For a more complete idea of how a country influences climate change, gases such as methane and nitrous oxide should be taken into account. This is particularly important in agricultural economies. The environmental effects of carbon dioxide are of significant interest. Carbon dioxide (CO2) makes up the largest share of the greenhouse gases contributing to global warming and climate change. Converting all other greenhouse gases (methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)) to carbon dioxide (or CO2) equivalents makes it possible to compare them and to determine their individual and total contributions to global warming. The Kyoto Protocol, an environmental agreement adopted in 1997 by many of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is working towards curbing CO2 emissions globally.
·
Limitations and Exceptions: The U.S. Department of
Energy's Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) calculates annual
anthropogenic emissions from data on fossil fuel consumption (from the United
Nations Statistics Division's World Energy Data Set) and world cement
manufacturing (from the U.S. Department of Interior's Geological Survey, USGS
2011). Although estimates of global carbon dioxide emissions are probably
accurate within 10 percent (as calculated from global average fuel chemistry
and use), country estimates may have larger error bounds. Trends estimated from
a consistent time series tend to be more accurate than individual values. Each
year the CDIAC recalculates the entire time series since 1949, incorporating
recent findings and corrections. Estimates exclude fuels supplied to ships and
aircraft in international transport because of the difficulty of apportioning
the fuels among benefiting countries.
·
Periodicity: Annual
· Statistical Concept and Methodology: Carbon dioxide emissions, largely by-products of energy production and use, account for the largest share of greenhouse gases, which are associated with global warming. Anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions result primarily from fossil fuel combustion and cement manufacturing. In combustion different fossil fuels release different amounts of carbon dioxide for the same level of energy use: oil releases about 50 percent more carbon dioxide than natural gas, and coal releases about twice as much. Cement manufacturing releases about half a metric ton of carbon dioxide for each metric ton of cement produced. Data for carbon dioxide emissions include gases from the burning of fossil fuels and cement manufacture, but excludes emissions from land use such as deforestation. The unit of measurement is kt (kiloton). Carbon dioxide emissions are often calculated and reported as elemental carbon. The were converted to actual carbon dioxide mass by multiplying them by 3.667 (the ratio of the mass of carbon to that of carbon dioxide).
GHG Emissions
Pakistan’s
GHG profile is dominated by emissions from the energy and agriculture sectors,
whose combined emissions total 87% of national GHG emissions.
According to
the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (WRI CAIT),
energy contributes 46% of Pakistan’s total annual GHG emissions, of which 26%
is attributed to electricity consumption, 25% to manufacturing, 23% to
transportation and the remaining 25% to other energy subsectors.
Agriculture
accounts for 41% of total GHG emissions, of which enteric fermentation is the
primary contributor (46%).
The land use
change and forestry (LUCF) sector contributes 6%, dominated almost entirely by
changes in forest land.1 Industrial processes (IP) and waste contribute 5% and
2%, respectively.
Pakistan
submitted its Initial National Communication (INC) in 2003, which included a
national GHG inventory for the period July 1993 - June 1994. Pakistan also
developed a GHG inventory for year 2008, referenced in the Final Report of the
Task Force on Climate Change published in 2010.
Change in GHG Emissions in Pakistan
(1990-2012)
Pakistan’s
total GHG emissions grew 87% from 1990-2012. The average annual change in total
emissions during this period was 2.9%, with sector-specific average annual
changes as follows: energy (3.8%), agriculture (2.7%), LUCF (-0.7%), IP (7%),
and waste (1.3%).
Energy
emissions in Pakistan grew by 87 MtCO2e from 1990 through 2012, contributing to
55% of total emissions growth. During the same time, agriculture emissions grew
by 62 MtCO2e and contributed 39% of the total increase. Emissions from the IP
sector showed the highest average annual increase, but contributed relatively
little given the sector’s small share of total emissions.
Energy
The electricity and transportation subsectors were the main drivers of energy sector emissions growth, contributing 30% and 27%, respectively, of the total energy sector increase.3 The relative share of GHG-intensive fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) in the electricity generation mix increased from 54% in 1990 to 64% in 2012. The total amount of electricity consumption also doubled during this time, from 31 billion kWh in 1990 to 77 billion kWh in 2012, driven by improved access to electricity, from 60% of the population in 1990 to 94% in 2012. 4 The number of motor (private) vehicles registered increased from 2 million vehicles in 19925 to more than 9 million vehicles registered in 2011, driving an increase in consumption of fuel oil and compressed natural gas7 in the transport sector.
Agriculture
54% of
emissions growth from this sector is due to enteric fermentation while another
18% came from synthetic fertilizers and 14% came from manure left on pasture. 8
These trends are accompanied by growth of the livestock population, which
increased at an annual growth rate of 2.4% between 1990 and 2000, and
approximately 3.5% between 2001 and 2011.The largest sector of Pakistan’s
economy, agriculture contributes about 24% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Carbon Intensity: GHG Emissions
Relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GHG emissions
grew by 89% over the period 1990- 2012, averaging just under 3% annually,
whereas GDP grew by 136% during the same time, averaging 4% annually. 11 With
the carbon intensity of Pakistan’s economy at almost 4 times the world average,
there is potential to reduce Pakistan’s GHG emissions relative to GDP.
Climate Change Mitigation Targets and
Plans
Pakistan’s
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), submitted on November 12,
2015, does not specify an emissions reduction target or set of mitigation
activities. The country’s 2012 National Climate Change Policy states that the
Government will develop an Action Plan for implementing climate change
mitigation measures in the energy, agriculture, and forestry sectors, including
promoting renewable and hydroelectric power, prioritizing natural gas imports
over oil and coal, introducing energy conservation measures, developing public
transit and implementing vehicle emission standards, promoting better
agriculture and livestock management practices, setting afforestation and
reforestation targets, and curbing illegal deforestation. These actions are
contingent upon affordability, provision of international climate finance,
transfer of technology, and capacity building.
Particulate matter (PM), also known as particle pollution, is a complex mixture of extremely small particles and liquid droplets that get into the air. Once inhaled, these particles can affect the heart and lungs and cause serious health effects.
Methane emissions are those stemming from human activities such as agriculture and from industrial methane production.
Source: European Commission, Joint Research Centre ( JRC )/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ( PBL ). Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research ( EDGAR ): edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Nitrous oxide emissions are emissions from agricultural biomass burning, industrial activities, and livestock management.
GHG net emissions/removals by LUCF refers to changes in atmospheric levels of all greenhouse gases attributable to forest and land-use change activities, including but not limited to (1) emissions and removals of CO2 from decreases or increases in biomass stocks due to forest management, logging, fuelwood collection, etc.; (2) conversion of existing forests and natural grasslands to other land uses; (3) removal of CO2 from the abandonment of formerly managed lands (e.g. croplands and pastures); and (4) emissions and removals of CO2 in soil associated with land-use change and management. For Annex-I countries under the UNFCCC, these data are drawn from the annual GHG inventories submitted to the UNFCCC by each country; for non-Annex-I countries, data are drawn from the most recently submitted National Communication where available. Because of differences in reporting years and methodologies, these data are not generally considered comparable across countries. Data are in million metric tons.
Pakistan's GHG Emissions
Pakistan’s
GHG profile is dominated by emissions from the energy and agriculture sectors,
whose combined emissions total 87% of national GHG emissions.
According to
the World Resources Institute’s Climate Analysis Indicator Tool (WRI CAIT),
energy contributes 46% of Pakistan’s total annual GHG emissions, of which 26%
is attributed to electricity consumption, 25% to manufacturing, 23% to
transportation and the remaining 25% to other energy subsectors.
Agriculture
accounts for 41% of total GHG emissions, of which enteric fermentation is the
primary contributor (46%).
The land use
change and forestry (LUCF) sector contributes 6%, dominated almost entirely by
changes in forest land.1 Industrial processes (IP) and waste contribute 5% and
2%, respectively.
Pakistan
submitted its Initial National Communication (INC) in 2003, which included a
national GHG inventory for the period July 1993 - June 1994. Pakistan also
developed a GHG inventory for year 2008, referenced in the Final Report of the
Task Force on Climate Change published in 2010.
Change in GHG Emissions in Pakistan
(1990-2012)
Pakistan’s
total GHG emissions grew 87% from 1990-2012. The average annual change in total
emissions during this period was 2.9%, with sector-specific average annual
changes as follows: energy (3.8%), agriculture (2.7%), LUCF (-0.7%), IP (7%),
and waste (1.3%).
Energy
emissions in Pakistan grew by 87 MtCO2e from 1990 through 2012, contributing to
55% of total emissions growth. During the same time, agriculture emissions grew
by 62 MtCO2e and contributed 39% of the total increase. Emissions from the IP
sector showed the highest average annual increase, but contributed relatively
little given the sector’s small share of total emissions.
Energy
The electricity and transportation subsectors were the main drivers of energy sector emissions growth, contributing 30% and 27%, respectively, of the total energy sector increase.3 The relative share of GHG-intensive fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) in the electricity generation mix increased from 54% in 1990 to 64% in 2012. The total amount of electricity consumption also doubled during this time, from 31 billion kWh in 1990 to 77 billion kWh in 2012, driven by improved access to electricity, from 60% of the population in 1990 to 94% in 2012. 4 The number of motor (private) vehicles registered increased from 2 million vehicles in 19925 to more than 9 million vehicles registered in 2011, driving an increase in consumption of fuel oil and compressed natural gas in the transport sector.
Agriculture
54% of
emissions growth from this sector is due to enteric fermentation while another
18% came from synthetic fertilizers and 14% came from manure left on pasture. 8
These trends are accompanied by growth of the livestock population, which
increased at an annual growth rate of 2.4% between 1990 and 2000, and
approximately 3.5% between 2001 and 2011.The largest sector of Pakistan’s
economy, agriculture contributes about 24% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Carbon Intensity: GHG Emissions
Relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
GHG emissions
grew by 89% over the period 1990- 2012, averaging just under 3% annually,
whereas GDP grew by 136% during the same time, averaging 4% annually. 11 With
the carbon intensity of Pakistan’s economy at almost 4 times the world average,
there is potential to reduce Pakistan’s GHG emissions relative to GDP.
Climate Change Mitigation Targets and
Plans
Pakistan’s
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC), submitted on November 12,
2015, does not specify an emissions reduction target or set of mitigation
activities. The country’s 2012 National Climate Change Policy states that the
Government will develop an Action Plan for implementing climate change
mitigation measures in the energy, agriculture, and forestry sectors, including
promoting renewable and hydroelectric power, prioritizing natural gas imports
over oil and coal, introducing energy conservation measures, developing public
transit and implementing vehicle emission standards, promoting better
agriculture and livestock management practices, setting afforestation and
reforestation targets, and curbing illegal deforestation. These actions are
contingent upon affordability, provision of international climate finance,
transfer of technology, and capacity building.
Fossil fuel comprises coal, oil, petroleum, and natural gas products.
Access to electricity is the percentage of population with access to
electricity. Electrification data are collected from industry, national surveys
and international sources.
Renewable electricity is the share of electrity generated by renewable power plants in total electricity generated by all types of plants.
Source: World Bank, Sustainable Energy for All ( SE4ALL ) database from the SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework led jointly by the World Bank, International Energy Agency, and the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program.
Clean energy is noncarbohydrate energy that does not produce carbon dioxide when generated. It includes hydropower and nuclear, geothermal, and solar power, among others.
Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income (or, in some cases, consumption expenditure) among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Lorenz curve plots the cumulative percentages of total income received against the cumulative number of recipients, starting with the poorest individual or household. The Gini index measures the area between the Lorenz curve and a hypothetical line of absolute equality, expressed as a percentage of the maximum area under the line. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality.
Description about selected variable will be shown here. (no data added yet)
Adaptation, Mitigation, and Productivity Considerations in Pakistan’s Agriculture Sector
Changes in monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges to the agricultural sector, particularly in northern Pakistan, where vulnerability to climate change is already high. Investment in climate-smart agriculture will be required to ensure a stable food supply in this dynamic economy in the face of climate change.
Agriculture provides employment for roughly 25 million people in Pakistan and is the main income source for 34% and 74% of economically active men and women respectively in the country. Even though they make up the majority of the country’s agricultural workforce, women are less likely to own income-generating assets and have inadequate access to education, latest technologies and farming techniques, and agricultural extension. climate-smart agriculture interventions targeting women will have disproportionally large impacts on Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
Pakistan often experiences periods of severe droughts, followed by devastating floods. In the aftermath of the 2010 floods, one fifth of the country’s land area was submerged, damaging the economy, infrastructure and livelihoods, and leaving 90 million people food insecure. climate-smart agriculture strategies that help mitigate and adapt to extreme events are critical for food security in the country.
Three-fourths of the country receives less than 250 mm of rainfall annually. The country boasts a comprehensive network of irrigation infrastructure including canals and dams, yet water resources for agriculture are expected to decline in coming years. Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology and techniques, and water infrastructure are needed to tackle the emerging challenges to the agricultural sector, especially in the context of declining water availability and climate change impacts.
Pakistan is the world’s sixth most populous country and its population is growing at a rate of approximately 2% per year. Since most of the arable land is already in use, productivity gains to meet this growing and predominantly urban population will likely be achieved through sustainably increasing cropping intensity in the country, accompanied with increased fertilizer usage.
Agriculture is responsible for approximately 41% of all GHG emissions in the country, mostly through livestock production. Climate-smart agriculture technologies and practices that improve efficiency in livestock systems while simultaneously reducing emissions may include: improved animal feed and feeding techniques to reduce methane and nitrous oxide, improved breeding, adapted manure storage and management practices, and improved pastures and management of grazing lands to enhance productivity and create carbon sinks.
Pakistan is making considerable efforts to incorporate renewable energy technologies into its agricultural production systems to overcome persistent and widespread energy shortages in the country. This includes windmills, solar panels and bio-energy production units that can be used for water supply and storage and other farm equipment.
The level of climate-related expenditures has been low over the past years, yet the country’s new Pakistan Climate Change Act (PCCA), 2017 sets the stage for the establishment of the Pakistan Climate Change Authority and Pakistan Climate Change Fund, which are expected to help mobilize domestic and international funds for mitigation and adaptation interventions in the country, including climate-smart agriculture.
Agriculture and Climate Change in Pakistan
Agriculture in Pakistan is significantly affected by short-term climate variability and longer-term climate change. Pakistan is ranked among the top ten most climate vulnerable countries in the world in the Global Climate Risk Index. The country has a diversified geography and climate. Broadly speaking, the country is situated on a steep incline, with altitudes varying from 8500 meters above sea level in the Himalayas to sea level at the country’s coasts, all within a distance of less than 3,000 km. The marine tropical coastland, the subtropical continental lowlands and subtropical highlands, as well as the subtropical continental plateau constitute the main climatic regions of the country.
Climate change threats are exacerbated in the country due to the arid climate and reliance on water from the glacial melt in the north. Periods of severe droughts, followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have contributed to low crop yields, loss of livestock, damage to irrigation infrastructure and food shortages in recent years. Economic losses associated to the 2010-2014 floods amounted to US$ 18 billion, affecting the livelihoods of 38 million people and causing damages to approximately 4.3 million ha of cropland.
Changes in climate have been manifested through long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of the country and higher glacial melts8 that contribute to over 70% of river flows. Moreover, the mean temperature across the country has increased by 0.5°C in the past 30 years. Projections indicate an increase in mean temperature of 1.4°C - 3.7°C by 2060 in Pakistan (higher than the expected global average), with the north potentially experiencing higher temperatures compared to the south of the country. Temperatures are also expected to increase more in winter than in summer in Pakistan. Projections for precipitation change are less clear, due to considerable model uncertainties for the region.
Changes in monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges to agriculture, particularly in northern Pakistan, where vulnerability to climate change is already high. Increases in temperature will likely speed up crop growth cycles and shorten the time between sowing and harvesting, affecting crop yields. According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index, droughts are expected to increase in winter, affecting the yield of cash harvests. Meanwhile, increase in precipitation in the summer season may cause floods throughout different areas of Pakistan.
Despite extensive irrigation infrastructure, gaps in water management infrastructure, such as dams, results in discharge of excess water into the sea, leaving the country in water-stressed situation for the large part of the year. This will have considerable impacts on key crops in Pakistan. Wheat and rice yield, or example, are expected to decrease in all areas. Moreover, climate change impacts on water resources are unclear, due to the uncertain behavior of the northern glaciers. There is an increased risk of avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFS) across the river systems of the country.
Economic Relevance of Agriculture
The Pakistani economy has been growing steadily over the last 60 years at an average annual rate of 4.9% and has nearly doubled in size in only the last 10 years from GDP of US$ 137 billion in 2006 to over US$ 270 billion in 2015. The country’s growth, however, has been inconsistent, with many cycles of booms and busts. Pakistan is considered an emerging market economy, but it lags on many development metrics, including being ranked 147th out of 188 countries on the 2016 Human Development Index. Agriculture remains the second largest economic sector in Pakistan, contributing approximately 25% to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and absorbing roughly 42% of the labor force, mainly composed of women. The sector is not only the largest employer in the country but generates over 75% of export revenue through agri-based textiles (cotton) and agri-food products. The country is among the world’s largest textile and rice exporters and imports significant quantities of palm oil used in cooking. Despite its critical importance to food security, livelihoods, economic growth and export revenues, agricultural productivity remains low, with significant yield gaps compared to global averages in key crops like wheat, rice and sugarcane. The average farm size in Pakistan is 2.6 hectares (ha), with approximately 43% of the farmers categorized as smallholders with holdings of less than one ha, while only 22% own more than 3 ha of land. In 2016, for first time in the past 15 years, the sector experienced a negative growth rate of 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of extreme events on key crops, a lack of access to key inputs, and a global downturn in commodity prices. Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology and techniques, and water infrastructure are needed to tackle the emerging challenges to the sector’s development, especially in the context of declining water availability and climate change impacts.
Land Use & Arable Land
Pakistan is a natural resource–based economy, with almost half of its total land area (36 million ha) dedicated to agriculture. Approximately 84% of land is classified as arable and 14% as permanent meadows or pastures. The country’s forested area represents only 2% of total land— compared to the world average of over 30% —and is declining at a rate of 0.2-0.5% per year. Deforestation— driven by urbanization, a rural reliance on fuelwood, and poor land planning— has been linked with socioeconomic vulnerability and a lack of effective policy and monitoring mechanisms to protect forests.
The area of land under production has remained relatively stable over the last four decades at approximately 36 million ha. Since most of the arable land in Pakistan is already cultivated, productivity gains in the country are achieved through increased cropping intensity and the higher use of fertilizers. The average annual fertilizer use in Pakistan across all cropping systems is estimated at 159.9 kg/ha.
Agriculture Production Systems
Pakistan is a country of diverse ecological zones with considerable variations in topography, altitude, climate, and seasons. Specifically, the country can be divided into ten distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The north has high mountains and valleys, while the Pothwar Plateau and the fertile Indus Plain lie immediately to the south. The western part of Pakistan is comprised of the Baluchistan Plateau, bordered by mountains to the northeast. There are two sandy deserts in the Indus Basin: the Thal desert in the upper region and the Thar desert in the south-east. The southernmost region of the country is characterized by marshy land.
Although most crops are grown across the country, some are more dominant in particular AEZs. It is in the AEZ along the Indus River, the Indus Basin and Delta, and northern and southern irrigated plains for example, where the main crops of cotton, sugar cane, rice and wheat are cultivated. Punjab province, Pakistan’s most productive agricultural province, sits at the convergence of these highly productive ecological zones. Pakistan receives monsoon rainfall in the summer, while in the winter it receives rainfall due to western systems (prevailing winds from the Mediterranean). These two forces broadly determine the two main cropping seasons in the country. These are ‘Kharif’ (April-June), suitable for summer crops cultivation (e.g. rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses), and ‘Rabi’ (October-December) when wheat, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are grown. The major crops are cotton, wheat, rice, sugar cane and maize that cover over 50% of the harvested area. Some crops such as pulses, onions, potatoes, chili, and tomatoes, have gained in economic importance in the country, given the consistently high prices of these essential commodities. Climate variability and change, pest infestation, and commodity price fluctuations are some of the challenges to crop productivity.
Livestock is the largest agriculture sub-sector in the country, representing more than half of Pakistan’s agricultural GDP (55.4%) and is considered a key livelihood strategy for smallholder subsistence farmers, especially women and people lacking clear land ownership rights. Livestock activities are common across all AEZ areas in the country and are particularly important in predominantly rain-fed regions. The following infographic shows a selection of agriculture production systems key for Pakistan’s food security. The importance is based on the system’s contribution to economic, productivity and nutrition quality indicators.
Agriculture production is mostly irrigated, using both surface and groundwater. Roughly 94% of the agricultural area in Pakistan is equipped for irrigation. The country has an extensive irrigation system relying on rivers, dams, barrages and canals. However, erratic monsoons patterns, increased glacial melt, low water storage capacity and on-going cross boarder water disputes add uncertainty to the availability of water and affect production patterns.
Food Security and Nutrition
Natural disasters, economic instability, and militancy have challenged food security in Pakistan over the past years, despite significant increases in staple crop yields. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in the Global Food Security Index, with more than half of the population (60%) experiencing food insecurity. The average food supply in the country is estimated at 2,440 kcal/person/day, yet this is rated insufficient to meet demand (the country boasts an index score of 39.7, where 100 indicates sufficiency of supply) given high geographical disparities in food production and supply. From a nutrition perspective, over one-fifth (22%) of the total population is undernourished, one-third (31%) of children are underweight for their age (15% are affected by wasting) and diets generally lack diversity (Pakistan scores a 53.60 on the food diversity index).
Low nutritional quality is associated with economic hardship, low literacy levels, poor sanitary conditions, and inadequate access to health services. In the Pakistani diet, cereals (predominantly wheat) remain the main staple food, accounting for 62% of total energy. Wheat is followed by milk and vegetables in terms of calories consumed. On average, households in Pakistan spend 44% of their income on food, higher than any other commodity group. The expenditure is higher in rural areas at 48%, where two-thirds of the population resides and 80% of the poor population is concentrated. Limited access to credit, markets and government services contribute to widespread chronic poverty and food insecurity among rural populations. These conditions were amplified in the aftermath of the 2010 floods where 90 million people were considered food insecure in Pakistan. This situation had been deteriorating gradually since 20034 and worsening when the floods submerged one fifth of the country’s land area, damaging infrastructure and limiting access to food and basic services. Socioeconomic factors also contributed to increased food insecurity in this period as on-going political instability and militancy gripped the country, leading to widespread unemployment and high inflation (16% in 2010, but has reduced to a 13 year low of under 3% in 2016). In an effort to combat these long-term trends, Pakistan joined the Scaling-Up Nutrition initiative in 2013 and established a multi-sectoral committee to coordinate food policies and interventions at national and provincial levels. Additionally, Pakistan Vision 2025—the country’s long term planning policy— puts food security of the population at the forefront of the political agenda in the country.
Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Pakistan’s contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represent only 0.8 percent of global emissions, estimated at 355 megatons of CO2 equivalent annually, including emissions from the Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF) sectors. Consequently, the country is ranked low at 148th in the world on the list of global emitters, based on a per capita GHG emission of 1.96 tons of CO2 equivalent.
Of the total GHG emissions in Pakistan, agriculture is the single largest contributor representing approximately 41% of the emissions, mainly through livestock rearing and cropland. These systems represent 78% and 22% of total agriculture emissions, respectively. With a growing population and evolving dietary preferences, food demand is expected to increase significantly in to the future, driving commensurate increases in agricultural sector emissions.
Potential interventions to reduce livestock sector emissions are especially important in Pakistan. Technologies and practices that improve the production efficiency of livestock while simultaneously reducing emissions may include: improved animal feed and feeding techniques that can reduce methane and nitrous oxide generated during digestion and the decomposing of manure; improved breeding; adapted manure storage and management practices; and improved pastures and management of grazing lands which could improve productivity and create carbon sinks. Meanwhile, for the cropping sector, improved irrigation and water management, particularly in rice cultivation, is needed to control the release of methane from paddy cropping systems. No-till farming and conservation agriculture may also be applied to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and control weeds and pests for several cropping systems in Pakistan. Finally, agroforestry and large-scale tree plantation programs, such as the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project and the Green Pakistan Program, are necessary to counter emissions from rapid land use change and deforestation in the country.
Reference:
Adapted from: "Climate-Smart Agriculture in Pakistan" 2017. Country Profiles for Asia Series. International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT); The World Bank. Washington, D.C.
Further information on Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan:
Agriculture has been one of the oldest economic activities in all over the world. It is not only the backbone of foodgrain supply to the work force but also supply raw material to industries. Depending upon the natural resources, agricultural sector is vulnerable to climatic change and vagaries of nature.
Climate change has raised serious concerns for developing countries and Pakistan is not alone to face tremendous social, environmental and economic impacts. The many impacts on agricultural due to climate change have received a high contemplations in Pakistan as the change in climate is closely linked to food security and poverty of a vast majority of the country’s population. Pakistan’s status as a developing country is dependent mainly on agricultural sector making it highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Agricultural and allied activities are the single largest sector, contributing 21 percent to GDP and employing 44 percent of workforce. As much as 65 percent foreign exchange is earned from export of goods manufactured from raw material obtained from agricultural sector. More than two-third of Pakistan population lives in rural areas and their livelihood depend on agricultural and agro-based activities (Pakistan Economic Survey, 2007-08). In 2006, the share of agricultural sector in GDP, exports and employment level have markedly decreased.
Amongst other reasons of declining agricultural productivity, change in climate has been marked a major contributor. According to Economic Survey (2007-08), agricultural sector has performed poorly in 2007-08, it grew at 1.5 percent against the target of 4 percent. The sector had suffered from multifarious reasons which also included heavy rainfall in May 2007, high temperature during August and September, 2007 and shortage of water in the overall irrigation system. Concerns about potential adverse impacts of climate change have triggered which could be named as impact assessment research since the early 1990s. Over the past two decades, the impact assessment research has gone through a metamorphosis with gradual movement towards vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Impact assessment studies have continued on a wider horizon in order to evolve both innovations in methodology and scope of analysis.
It is documented in final report of Planning Commission Task Force on Climate Change that there is a dire need to quantify the impact of climate change on different sectors of the economy for planning and policy making. The report has also noted that it is not easy to assess the economic impact of climate change on different sectors of the economy. But it is of very crucial importance for national planners and policymakers to develop and shape the country’s development plans in the most optimal manner within the constraints of limited available resources. Rabi and Kharif are two sowing and harvesting seasons in Pakistan. Research should factor in Rabi and Kharif mean precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature as climate variable and the magnitude of change in non-climate agricultural variables like per acre agricultural land price with change of climate variables. Climate change impacts have been confirmed to considerably affect the price of agricultural land which is a long-term variable for net revenues.
Punjab is the most populous and the second largest province of Pakistan. Agricultural sector dominates the Punjab landscape both in the percentage of land (57.2 percent) in agricultural sector and also the percentage share (53 percent) of Pakistan’s agricultural gross domestic product (Punjab Development Statistics, 2009). The capacity of agricultural sector adaptability to the changing climate has never properly been investigated. Developing a comprehensive understanding of this adaptation capacity will facilitate efficient and viable agricultural policy reforms in the context of climate change.
By conducting multidimensional research and developing sound policy recommendations, government and policy makers can develop strategies based upon the ground realities of a changing climate.
(Source: Hanif et. al., Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab, Pakistan Development Review, 2010)
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Adaptation, Mitigation, and Productivity Considerations in Pakistan’s Agriculture Sector
Changes in
monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges
to the agricultural sector, particularly in northern Pakistan, where
vulnerability to climate change is already high. Investment in climate-smart agriculture will be
required to ensure a stable food supply in this dynamic economy in the face of
climate change.
Agriculture
provides employment for roughly 25 million people in Pakistan and is the main
income source for 34% and 74% of economically active men and women respectively
in the country. Even though they make up the majority of the country’s agricultural
workforce, women are less likely to own income-generating assets and have
inadequate access to education, latest technologies and farming techniques, and
agricultural extension. climate-smart agriculture interventions targeting women will have
disproportionally large impacts on Pakistan’s agricultural sector.
Pakistan
often experiences periods of severe droughts, followed by devastating floods.
In the aftermath of the 2010 floods, one fifth of the country’s land area was
submerged, damaging the economy, infrastructure and livelihoods, and leaving 90
million people food insecure. climate-smart agriculture strategies that help mitigate and adapt to
extreme events are critical for food security in the country.
Three-fourths
of the country receives less than 250 mm of rainfall annually. The country
boasts a comprehensive network of irrigation infrastructure including canals
and dams, yet water resources for agriculture are expected to decline in coming
years. Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology and
techniques, and water infrastructure are needed to tackle the emerging
challenges to the agricultural sector, especially in the context of declining
water availability and climate change impacts.
Pakistan is
the world’s sixth most populous country and its population is growing at a rate
of approximately 2% per year. Since most of the arable land is already in use,
productivity gains to meet this growing and predominantly urban population will
likely be achieved through sustainably increasing cropping intensity in the
country, accompanied with increased fertilizer usage.
Agriculture
is responsible for approximately 41% of all GHG emissions in the country,
mostly through livestock production. Climate-smart agriculture technologies and practices that
improve efficiency in livestock systems while simultaneously reducing emissions
may include: improved animal feed and feeding techniques to reduce methane and
nitrous oxide, improved breeding, adapted manure storage and management
practices, and improved pastures and management of grazing lands to enhance
productivity and create carbon sinks.
Pakistan is
making considerable efforts to incorporate renewable energy technologies into
its agricultural production systems to overcome persistent and widespread
energy shortages in the country. This includes windmills, solar panels and
bio-energy production units that can be used for water supply and storage and
other farm equipment.
The level of
climate-related expenditures has been low over the past years, yet the
country’s new Pakistan Climate Change Act (PCCA), 2017 sets the stage for the
establishment of the Pakistan Climate Change Authority and Pakistan Climate
Change Fund, which are expected to help mobilize domestic and international
funds for mitigation and adaptation interventions in the country, including climate-smart agriculture.
Agriculture and Climate Change in
Pakistan
Agriculture
in Pakistan is significantly affected by short-term climate variability and
longer-term climate change. Pakistan is ranked among the top ten most climate
vulnerable countries in the world in the Global Climate Risk Index. The country
has a diversified geography and climate. Broadly speaking, the country is
situated on a steep incline, with altitudes varying from 8500 meters above sea
level in the Himalayas to sea level at the country’s coasts, all within a
distance of less than 3,000 km. The marine tropical coastland, the subtropical
continental lowlands and subtropical highlands, as well as the subtropical
continental plateau constitute the main climatic regions of the country.
Climate
change threats are exacerbated in the country due to the arid climate and
reliance on water from the glacial melt in the north. Periods of severe
droughts, followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have
contributed to low crop yields, loss of livestock, damage to irrigation
infrastructure and food shortages in recent years. Economic losses associated
to the 2010-2014 floods amounted to US$ 18 billion, affecting the livelihoods
of 38 million people and causing damages to approximately 4.3 million ha of
cropland.
Changes in
climate have been manifested through long-term reduction in rainfall in the
semi-arid regions of the country and higher glacial melts8 that contribute to
over 70% of river flows. Moreover, the mean temperature across the country has
increased by 0.5°C in the past 30 years. Projections indicate an increase in
mean temperature of 1.4°C - 3.7°C by 2060 in Pakistan (higher than the expected
global average), with the north potentially experiencing higher temperatures
compared to the south of the country. Temperatures are also expected to
increase more in winter than in summer in Pakistan. Projections for
precipitation change are less clear, due to considerable model uncertainties
for the region.
Changes in
monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges
to agriculture, particularly in northern Pakistan, where vulnerability to
climate change is already high. Increases in temperature will likely speed up
crop growth cycles and shorten the time between sowing and harvesting,
affecting crop yields. According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index,
droughts are expected to increase in winter, affecting the yield of cash
harvests. Meanwhile, increase in precipitation in the summer season may cause floods
throughout different areas of Pakistan.
Despite
extensive irrigation infrastructure, gaps in water management infrastructure,
such as dams, results in discharge of excess water into the sea, leaving the
country in water-stressed situation for the large part of the year. This will
have considerable impacts on key crops in Pakistan. Wheat and rice yield, or
example, are expected to decrease in all areas. Moreover, climate change
impacts on water resources are unclear, due to the uncertain behavior of the
northern glaciers. There is an increased risk of avalanches and glacial lake
outburst floods (GLOFS) across the river systems of the country.
Economic Relevance of Agriculture
The Pakistani
economy has been growing steadily over the last 60 years at an average annual
rate of 4.9% and has nearly doubled in size in only the last 10 years from GDP
of US$ 137 billion in 2006 to over US$ 270 billion in 2015. The country’s growth,
however, has been inconsistent, with many cycles of booms and busts. Pakistan
is considered an emerging market economy, but it lags on many development
metrics, including being ranked 147th out of 188 countries on the 2016 Human
Development Index. Agriculture remains the second largest economic sector in
Pakistan, contributing approximately 25% to the national Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and absorbing roughly 42% of the labor force, mainly composed of women.
The sector is not only the largest employer in the country but generates over
75% of export revenue through agri-based textiles (cotton) and agri-food
products. The country is among the world’s largest textile and rice exporters
and imports significant quantities of palm oil used in cooking. Despite its
critical importance to food security, livelihoods, economic growth and export
revenues, agricultural productivity remains low, with significant yield gaps
compared to global averages in key crops like wheat, rice and sugarcane. The average
farm size in Pakistan is 2.6 hectares (ha), with approximately 43% of the
farmers categorized as smallholders with holdings of less than one ha, while
only 22% own more than 3 ha of land. In 2016, for first time in the past 15
years, the sector experienced a negative growth rate of 0.2%, primarily due to
the impact of extreme
events on key crops, a lack of access to key inputs, and a global downturn in
commodity prices. Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology
and techniques, and water infrastructure are needed to tackle the emerging
challenges to the sector’s development, especially in the context of declining
water availability and climate change impacts.
Land Use & Arable Land
Pakistan is a
natural resource–based economy, with almost half of its total land area (36
million ha) dedicated to agriculture. Approximately 84% of land is classified
as arable and 14% as permanent meadows or pastures. The country’s forested area
represents only 2% of total land— compared to the world average of over 30% —and is declining at a rate of 0.2-0.5% per year.
Deforestation— driven by urbanization, a rural reliance on fuelwood, and poor
land planning— has been linked with socioeconomic vulnerability and a lack of effective
policy and monitoring mechanisms to protect forests.
The area of
land under production has remained relatively stable over the last four decades
at approximately 36 million ha. Since most of the arable land in Pakistan is
already cultivated, productivity gains in the country are achieved through
increased cropping intensity and the higher use of fertilizers. The average
annual fertilizer use in Pakistan across all cropping systems is estimated at
159.9 kg/ha.
Agriculture Production Systems
Pakistan is a
country of diverse ecological zones with considerable variations in topography,
altitude, climate, and seasons. Specifically, the country can be divided into
ten distinct agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The north has high mountains and
valleys, while the Pothwar Plateau and the fertile Indus Plain lie immediately
to the south. The western part of Pakistan is comprised of the Baluchistan
Plateau, bordered by mountains to the northeast. There are two sandy deserts in
the Indus Basin: the Thal desert in the upper region and the Thar desert in the
south-east. The southernmost region of the country is characterized by marshy
land.
Although most
crops are grown across the country, some are more dominant in particular AEZs.
It is in the AEZ along the Indus River, the Indus Basin and Delta, and northern
and southern irrigated plains for example, where the main crops of cotton,
sugar cane, rice and wheat are cultivated. Punjab province, Pakistan’s most
productive agricultural province, sits at the convergence of these highly productive
ecological zones. Pakistan receives monsoon rainfall in the summer, while in
the winter it receives rainfall due to western systems (prevailing winds from
the Mediterranean). These two forces broadly determine the two main cropping
seasons in the country. These are ‘Kharif’ (April-June), suitable for summer
crops cultivation (e.g. rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses), and ‘Rabi’
(October-December) when wheat, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard
are grown. The major crops are cotton, wheat, rice, sugar cane and maize that
cover over 50% of the harvested area. Some crops such as pulses, onions,
potatoes, chili, and tomatoes, have gained in economic importance in the
country, given the consistently high prices of these essential commodities. Climate
variability and change, pest infestation, and commodity price fluctuations are
some of the challenges to crop productivity.
Livestock is
the largest agriculture sub-sector in the country, representing more than half
of Pakistan’s agricultural GDP (55.4%) and is considered a key livelihood
strategy for smallholder subsistence farmers, especially women and people
lacking clear land ownership rights. Livestock activities are common across all
AEZ areas in the country and are particularly important in predominantly
rain-fed regions. The following infographic shows a selection of agriculture
production systems key for Pakistan’s food security. The importance is based on
the system’s contribution to economic, productivity and nutrition quality
indicators.
Agriculture
production is mostly irrigated, using both surface and groundwater. Roughly 94%
of the agricultural area in Pakistan is equipped for irrigation. The country
has an extensive irrigation system relying on rivers, dams, barrages and
canals. However, erratic monsoons patterns, increased glacial melt, low water
storage capacity and on-going cross boarder water disputes add uncertainty to
the availability of water and affect production patterns.
Food Security and Nutrition
Natural
disasters, economic instability, and militancy have challenged food security in
Pakistan over the past years, despite significant increases in staple crop
yields. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in the Global Food Security
Index, with more than half of the population (60%) experiencing food
insecurity. The average food supply in the country is estimated at 2,440
kcal/person/day, yet this is rated insufficient to meet demand (the country
boasts an index score of 39.7, where 100 indicates sufficiency of supply) given
high geographical disparities in food production and supply. From a nutrition
perspective, over one-fifth (22%) of the total population is undernourished,
one-third (31%) of children are underweight for their age (15% are affected by
wasting) and diets generally lack diversity (Pakistan scores a 53.60 on the
food diversity index).
Low
nutritional quality is associated with economic hardship, low literacy levels,
poor sanitary conditions, and inadequate access to health services. In the
Pakistani diet, cereals (predominantly wheat) remain the main staple food,
accounting for 62% of total energy. Wheat is followed by milk and vegetables in
terms of calories consumed. On average, households in Pakistan spend 44% of
their income on food, higher than any other commodity group. The expenditure is
higher in rural areas at 48%, where two-thirds of the population resides and
80% of the poor population is concentrated. Limited access to credit, markets
and government services contribute to widespread chronic poverty and food
insecurity among rural populations. These conditions were amplified in the
aftermath of the 2010 floods where 90 million people were considered food
insecure in Pakistan. This situation had been deteriorating gradually since
20034 and worsening when the floods submerged one fifth of the country’s land
area, damaging infrastructure and limiting access to food and basic services.
Socioeconomic factors also contributed to increased food insecurity in this
period as on-going political instability and militancy gripped the country,
leading to widespread unemployment and high inflation (16% in 2010, but has
reduced to a 13 year low of under 3% in 2016). In an effort to combat these
long-term trends, Pakistan joined the Scaling-Up Nutrition initiative in 2013
and established a multi-sectoral committee to coordinate food policies and
interventions at national and provincial levels. Additionally, Pakistan Vision
2025—the country’s long term planning policy— puts food security of the population
at the forefront of the political agenda in the country.
Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Pakistan’s
contribution to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represent only 0.8
percent of global emissions, estimated at 355 megatons of CO2 equivalent
annually, including emissions from the Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF)
sectors. Consequently, the country is ranked low at 148th in the world on the
list of global emitters, based on a per capita GHG emission of 1.96 tons of CO2
equivalent.
Of the total
GHG emissions in Pakistan, agriculture is the single largest contributor
representing approximately 41% of the emissions, mainly through livestock rearing
and cropland. These systems represent 78% and 22% of total agriculture emissions,
respectively. With a growing population and evolving dietary preferences, food
demand is expected to increase significantly in to the future, driving
commensurate increases in agricultural sector emissions.
Potential interventions to reduce livestock sector emissions are especially important in Pakistan. Technologies and practices that improve the production efficiency of livestock while simultaneously reducing emissions may include: improved animal feed and feeding techniques that can reduce methane and nitrous oxide generated during digestion and the decomposing of manure; improved breeding; adapted manure storage and management practices; and improved pastures and management of grazing lands which could improve productivity and create carbon sinks. Meanwhile, for the cropping sector, improved irrigation and water management, particularly in rice cultivation, is needed to control the release of methane from paddy cropping systems. No-till farming and conservation agriculture may also be applied to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and control weeds and pests for several cropping systems in Pakistan. Finally, agroforestry and large-scale tree plantation programs, such as the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project and the Green Pakistan Program, are necessary to counter emissions from rapid land use change and deforestation in the country.
Reference:
Adapted from: "Climate-Smart
Agriculture in Pakistan" 2017. Country Profiles for Asia Series. International
Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT); The World Bank. Washington, D.C.
Further information on Climate Change
Impacts on Agriculture in Pakistan:
Agriculture has been one of the oldest economic activities in all over the world. It is not only the backbone of foodgrain supply to the work force but also supply raw material to industries. Depending upon the natural resources, agricultural sector is vulnerable to climatic change and vagaries of nature.
Climate
change has raised serious concerns for developing countries and Pakistan is not
alone to face tremendous social, environmental and economic impacts. The many
impacts on agricultural due to climate change have received a high
contemplations in Pakistan as the change in climate is closely linked to food
security and poverty of a vast majority of the country’s population. Pakistan’s
status as a developing country is dependent mainly on agricultural sector
making it highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Agricultural and
allied activities are the single largest sector, contributing 21 percent to GDP
and employing 44 percent of workforce. As much as 65 percent foreign exchange
is earned from export of goods manufactured from raw material obtained from
agricultural sector. More than two-third of Pakistan population lives in rural
areas and their livelihood depend on agricultural and agro-based activities
(Pakistan Economic Survey, 2007-08). In 2006, the share of agricultural sector
in GDP, exports and employment level have markedly decreased.
Amongst other
reasons of declining agricultural productivity, change in climate has been
marked a major contributor. According to Economic Survey (2007-08),
agricultural sector has performed poorly in 2007-08, it grew at 1.5 percent
against the target of 4 percent. The sector had suffered from multifarious
reasons which also included heavy rainfall in May 2007, high temperature during
August and September, 2007 and shortage of water in the overall irrigation
system. Concerns about potential adverse impacts of climate change have
triggered which could be named as impact assessment research since the early
1990s. Over the past two decades, the impact assessment research has gone
through a metamorphosis with gradual movement towards vulnerability and adaptation
assessment. Impact assessment studies have continued on a wider horizon in
order to evolve both innovations in methodology and scope of analysis.
It is
documented in final report of Planning Commission Task Force on Climate Change
that there is a dire need to quantify the impact of climate change on different
sectors of the economy for planning and policy making. The report has also
noted that it is not easy to assess the economic impact of climate change on
different sectors of the economy. But it is of very crucial importance for
national planners and policymakers to develop and shape the country’s
development plans in the most optimal manner within the constraints of limited
available resources. Rabi and Kharif are two sowing and harvesting seasons in
Pakistan. Research should factor in Rabi and Kharif mean precipitation, minimum
and maximum temperature as climate variable and the magnitude of change in
non-climate agricultural variables like per acre agricultural land price with
change of climate variables. Climate change impacts have been confirmed to considerably
affect the price of agricultural land which is a long-term variable for net
revenues.
Punjab is the
most populous and the second largest province of Pakistan. Agricultural sector
dominates the Punjab landscape both in the percentage of land (57.2 percent) in
agricultural sector and also the percentage share (53 percent) of Pakistan’s
agricultural gross domestic product (Punjab Development Statistics, 2009). The
capacity of agricultural sector adaptability to the changing climate has never properly
been investigated. Developing a comprehensive understanding of this adaptation
capacity will facilitate efficient and viable agricultural policy reforms in
the context of climate change.
By conducting
multidimensional research and developing sound policy recommendations, government
and policy makers can develop strategies based upon the ground realities of a
changing climate.
(Source: Hanif et. al., Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab, Pakistan Development Review, 2010)
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Description about selected variable will be shown here. (no data added yet)
Total health expenditure is the sum of public and private health expenditures as a ratio of total population. It covers the provision of health services (preventive and curative), family planning activities, nutrition activities, and emergency aid designated for health but does not include provision of water and sanitation. Data are in current U.S. dollars.
Hospital beds include inpatient beds available in public, private, general, and specialized hospitals and rehabilitation centers. In most cases beds for both acute and chronic care are included.
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